If people ever decide to colonize a planet outside the solar system, then they will need an incredible spacecraft. A new study showed that the number of colonies for distant interstellar flights should be 20-40 thousand people. So many people will be able to provide the genetic and demographic diversity necessary for survival over a long space journey and beyond.
Researchers previously believed that several hundred people would be enough to establish an interstellar settlement on or near an alien planet. However, they later decided to revise this figure. After all, the death of a large number of crew members in the event of an unexpected catastrophe can threaten the entire mission, writes the publication Space.
In April, a study appeared in the journal Acta Astronautica in which anthropologist Cameron Smith from Portland State University in the US state of Origon considered an interstellar journey of about 150 years. These deadlines are consistent with the calculations of the non-profit organization Icarus Interstellar, which, together with DARPA, Nasa and the Foundation for Enterprise Development, is engaged in planning flights to distant stars. The Starship Project, announced in January 2012, aims to make a manned interstellar journey by 2112.
To achieve this goal, a number of technologies will be required, including the technology of space-time curvature, which allows in short time to overcome interstellar distances with speeds above the speed of light. The project also involves the construction of an autonomous spacecraft colony. To date, NASA and DARPA have separately invested 100,000 and 1 million dollars in this project, respectively.
Smith's calculations, which he cited at a recent NASA Future In-Space Operations (FISO) event, are based on the theory of population genetics and computer simulation. The ideal (“safe”), according to the scientist, is a figure of 40 thousand people, of which 23 thousand are men and women of reproductive age.
This figure may seem large, but it is quite justified. Such a number will make it possible to avoid inbreeding, to ensure high genetic diversity, to take into account demographic changes and to survive at least one serious catastrophe, the article says. 40 thousand people can guarantee the health of the population in five generations.
Smith gives an analogy from the real world: to preserve the species of vertebrates on Earth, it is necessary to proceed from 7 thousand individuals. Reducing this figure leads to a gradual disappearance of the species. There are genetic reasons for this.
As a fallback, the researcher proposes to send together with the ship frozen eggs and sperm for subsequent cultivation of people in space. However, this option was not seriously considered in his article.
Similar reasoning applies to the colonization of Mars. The more people fly to the Red Planet, the greater the chance of its successful settlement.
Interstellar travel will require a completely new technology. Increasing the speed of a modern spacecraft a thousand times, according to the scientist, will allow us to get to the nearest star to Earth Proxima Centauri for 140 years.
The article is based on materials .
Comments
Post a Comment